Rassie Erasmus is many things after the Springboks surrendered their first home loss against Wales, but surprised isn’t one of them, writes ZELIM NEL.
South Africa were proudly unbeaten at home in 11 matches against the touring Dragons dating back to 1964. On Saturday, Rassie cashed in that chip to prove a point to his critics, restore the pecking order in the Bok squad and tick a box, commercially.
“Part of South Africa’s success in 2019 was that barely any changes were made to the squad from the day Rassie took over. In this series, there is simply no time to blood too many guys.”
These were the words of former Wallabies prop turned analytics specialist Ben Darwin in the weeks leading up to last year’s series against the British & Irish Lions.
After almost two years on ice, the Boks famously came back to win 2-1, leaning heavily on the cohesion of a team that, as Darwin notes, had built great continuity during Rassie’s term.
There was almost no continuity in Rassie’s first Test at the helm in 2018. Ironically, Wales are central to the story as Allister Coetzee’s dreadful tenure ended in December of 2017 with a 24-22 reverse in Cardiff, and Rassie then made 12 changes to the starting lineup at the beginning of the following season when he sent a team to Washington DC for an exhibition match against the Dragons.
Wales won 22-20 but Rassie’s logic in picking a patchwork team became evident when, one week later, the first-choice Boks beat England 42-39 at Ellis Park. And so began the well-documented run to glory at the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
On Saturday, the man who took South Africa from their darkest run of results to the top of world rugby knew exactly what he was doing when he stripped the Boks of their cohesion in Bloemfontein. But, as was the case in 2018, Rassie sacrificed a Test match for things he views as a strategic gain.
Nienaber: Risk of losing was worth reward
For starters, the Bok squad in Bloemfontein was loaded with fan favourites that Rassie has no intention of taking to France next year.
Tasked primarily with winning the 2023 Rugby World Cup, he is rightfully making the final call on who he believes gives South Africa the best shot at holding onto the Webb Ellis Cup. These choices become more difficult to sell to pundits and supporters when they exclude some of the heroes of, for example, the United Rugby Championship and the English Premiership. Joe Public has a short memory and there’s a long track record of Bok coaches being worn down by the public support for an in-form player that isn’t in his plans.
Rassie nipped this in the bud by giving the rugby public the team they would have picked, and then watching a predictable defeat unfold which now gives him the ammunition to shoot down calls for changes in the back row and at fullback.
An insincere token that went largely unnoticed by casual supporters would have been much more obvious to the players involved.
As with any consistently successful team, the supporting cast becomes increasingly dissatisfied with their role and several of the more experienced members of the squad who were sent out to draw fire in Bloemfontein would have jogged on as hellbent on foiling Rassie’s plan as they were to extinguish the Dragons.
Instead, the loss will justify Rassie’s depth chart as he reverts to the mainstays of the 2019 Rugby World Cup and 2021 Lions series in the Rugby Championship and beyond. As he has said, this squad was built in 2018 to win the 2023 showpiece and, in his mind, that roadmap is not going to take a detour because the likes of Marcell Coetzee and Warrick Gelant are fan favourites.
Having said that, public interest would have been a key factor in the decision to depower the world champions for the second Test.
A Bok win in Bloemfontein would have clinched the series, turning the third Test into a dead rubber and a test laboratory for experimental selections. These are hardly the hallmarks of an enticing prospect for potential ticket purchasers and, by losing in Bloemfontein, Rassie ensured the first Bok appearance at an open Cape Town Stadium is a decider and a sell-out – a result that will be seen as a masterstroke by his employers.
The unseen cost is that South Africa’s home record against Wales is gone forever, key first-choice players are comfortable in the knowledge they have a free ride to Paris, and any divide between them and the second-class squad members will have grown.
