MARK KEOHANE expects the two home sides to make him some cash in Super Rugby on Saturday.
It’s round one of Super Rugby and as I’ve said in the build-up to the opening skirmishes, there’s only one thing worse than being a Lions supporter – and that’s to be a Lions player. It’s going to be a long campaign for them and they’re going to get a taste of what lies ahead when they take on the Cheetahs.
In both the South African derbies I have the hosts to win by 10 points-plus. In Durban I’ve got the Sharks to beat the Bulls by 15 and in Bloemfontein the Cheetahs will put at least 12 points' daylight between themselves and the Lions.
Derby matches, especially in a South African context, are often closer than predicted and the losing side often ends up with a losing bonus point for getting within seven of their opponents. I can’t see that happening in this first set of fixtures, though.
I did my spread assessments before looking at the betting and found it interesting that the various online betting sites have the Cheetahs to win by 11 to 13 points based on around even-money (double your stake) odds.
As I’ve gone for the Cheetahs by 12, I looked to see what I could get at betflash.co.za. It is offering 0.85 on the Cheetahs winning by at least 11 and 1.2 on the Cheetahs winning by at least 14. My prediction falls somewhere in the middle, so I’m going to err on the side of caution on this one, but trust me, you won’t get the interest in a bank account over 80 minutes so go with me on this one.
betflash.co.za has the Cheetahs at 0.6 to 1 with an 8.5 point deficit. In layman’s terms they are giving the Lions an eight-point start. It won’t be enough for the Lions, so have a big punt on the Cheetahs. For every R100 outlay you’ll get R160 in return. It might not sound like great odds but how often do you get people giving you R60 profit for every R100 you take out your pocket!
Durban, though, I reckon is the place to make money. In their Asian handicap based on a points spread betflash.co.za have set the spread at around seven points between the Sharks and the Bulls. I’m confident that it will be at least double that for Jake White’s team.
In fact, the most attractive bet here is the 1.35 to 1 that betflash.co.za is offering for the Sharks to come from an effective nine-point deficit and win. They’ll be more than nine points better so lump on them. Every R100 will net you a return of R235. Now, that’s a tidy profit.
betflash.co.za also offers a range of other bets, including a R1-million incentive to select all 15 Super Rugby finishes in their correct order on the end-of-season log. Give me a few weeks to figure this one out, although you can ink in No 15, the Lions.
Finally, let’s look at the flash pots on betflash.co.za. It is offering odds on the finishing order of the South African teams in their conference. Favourite at even money is Sharks, Stormers, Cheetahs, Bulls and Lions.
I really like the look of the Sharks, Cheetahs, Stormers, Bulls and Lions and when you look at the odds offered them at 15-1. For every R100 you invest on this as the final order of the conference you’d get R1,600 in return. I have no doubt that in a few weeks time those odds will be way shorter than they are.
Until next week, happy punting and may the best teams win. The Sharks and Cheetahs, of course.
SA Rugby mag team's SuperBru predictions
VIDEO: Keo's Super Rugby predictions
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