The Springboks are having a hard time transitioning from 2019 world champions into a unit that will retain the Webb Ellis Cup in 2023, writes ZELIM NEL.
South Africa’s title defence in France next year gets going in earnest when they take on Ireland in a Pool B clash at Stade de France, the site of the 2007 finale.
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Spoiler alert: the Boks will not retain the coveted trophy with an unchanged team. It’s obviously an impossibility since the retirement of Tendai Mtawarira and Francois Louw, but the snail-paced evolution of this squad creates the impression that Beast and Flo may well have lined up against the All Blacks at Ellis Park on Saturday had they not taken executive decisions to sign off.
The duo are only one year older than Duane Vermeulen who, at 36, was picked to start against the three-time world champions in his first live action since knee surgery.
Richie McCaw was 35 when he led the All Blacks to back-to-back titles at the 2015 Rugby World Cup. The core of the squad that had won the 2011 showpiece was on deck four years later. More precisely, 10 players and seven starters featured in both finals – it would have been 11 and eight had Dan Carter not been injured in 2011.
A present-day Springbok comparison provides some telling insight. If Rassie Erasmus this season picked a squad for the 2023 Rugby World Cup final, there would be 18 holdovers and 13 of the same starters.
2019 Rugby World Cup final – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Bench: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Francois Louw, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn.
2023 Rugby World Cup final – 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche.
Bench: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Willie le Roux.
Rassie salvaged the Boks from their worst nightmare to win a World Cup and his squad remains very formidable. But Kieran Read, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith, Sam Whitelock, Dane Coles and Sonny Bill Williams were part of a very formidable All Blacks squad that beat Ireland 46-14 in the 2019 quarters and then couldn’t score more than seven points the following week in a semi-final reverse against England.
The Boks held the All Blacks to 10 points in Nelspruit and then conceded 35 at their Ellis Park ‘fortress’.
Cohesion and continuity are non-negotiable for sustained success at a tournament that is generally won by the team that goes unbeaten. However, this cohesion has to be balanced against a minimum level of output – Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie are the most cohesive centre pairing in Bok history but they wouldn’t be much use to Rassie in France next year.
Changes are needed, starting at flyhalf where Handre Pollard is too limited to develop South Africa’s set-phase attack. A veteran leader, a physical carrier and a satisfactory goal-kicker, Pollard is a predictable running threat and a mediocre distributor.
This season, Damian Willemse has showcased all the attributes, excluding perhaps the experience, required to start at 10 for South Africa.
Faf de Klerk has struggled to stay on the field and the tactically minded Jaden Hendrikse, though not without fault, is a brighter prospect to start in 2023.
The 2019 World Rugby Player of the Year, Pieter-Steph du Toit, has not consistently performed at that level since. Franco Mostert is nothing if not consistent and Elrigh Louw is an obvious candidate to take over at blindside flank with Du Toit perhaps reverting to lock.
The kamikaze defence is slowly losing the element of surprise and, as the All Blacks did, teams will increasingly explore wide options to get around South Africa’s otherwise impregnable narrow line.
The likes of Wiese and Vermeulen are heavyweights in head-on tackles, but Evan Roos offers the pack a Pierre Spies-esque athleticism with unprecedented burst and speed that can also mix it in the trenches.
And, long-term fullback prospects Aphelele Fassi and Canan Moodie have far too much potential to be waiting in a queue for time on the wing behind Jesse Kriel, while Dillyn Leyds offers the versatility to take over from Swiss army knife Frans Steyn.
Back-to-back world champions – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Bench: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Marcell Coetzee, 22 Faf de Klerk, 23 Handre Pollard.
