Round two of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship saw 65 tries scored, a remarkable return from eight fixtures.
Zebre Parma finished Vodacom URC 1 at the bottom of the table, but pushed titanic Leinster and the Cell C Sharks all the way in blockbuster spectacles over the past two weeks. The Dragons, who were on a six-match losing streak in the Vodacom URC, turned over a bruising Munster side last weekend.
This testifies to the ever-improving quality and competitiveness of the Vodacom URC.
The tenacity of the underdog in the Vodacom URC has seen the percentage of matches settled by seven points or less steadily increase – 46.7% of the first two rounds’ games were settled by this margin.
While it’s still early days in Vodacom URC 2, this spate of nail-biters reflects a longer trend in the competition, with this metric increasing year upon year to reach this figure – the highest of any of the past five seasons of Celtic, Italian and South African rugby.
The improvement in competitiveness highlights the success of the introduction of four South African franchises. In their first season going head-to-head with Celtic titans, three of the four newcomers qualified for the playoffs – and the grand final was fought between the DHL Stormers of Cape Town and the Vodacom Bulls of Pretoria.
At the same time, several northern hemisphere teams have been gradually on the rise.
Ulster’s margins of defeat have steadily decreased over the past four seasons and could be the archetype for other teams’ improvement as the league becomes more competitive.
Ulster have been genuine contenders for the title in this period – qualifying for playoffs in each season – and have closed the gap on teams that have bested them in the past, notably Leinster.
Last season Dan McFarland’s men overcame the Dubliners on both occasions in the Vodacom URC. In the two seasons prior to this, Ulster had lost all five of their contests with their fierce rivals.
Having delivered two thumping wins in their opening fixtures against Connacht and the Scarlets, the Ulstermen look good to continue their upward curve.
A possible explanation for Ulster’s growing threat is their improved defence; their tackle success percentage has increased since 2018 and was the best in Vodacom URC 1.
However, the league is generally becoming more competitive because teams are scoring more points rather than improving their defences. The following table shows the average number of tries scored by one team per match for the past four seasons.
Until last season, teams were scoring increasingly fewer tries per match. However, the inaugural Vodacom URC saw the highest tries average in recent seasons, with spectators being treated to an extra try per match in 2021-22.
This trend resonates throughout the league. Teams are not only scoring more points overall, but those points are being shared more evenly.
The best way to analyse this is to take the average number of points scored by each team, and then see how spread out they are, using the “standard deviation”.
In Vodacom URC 1, that stat fell to 4.4, its lowest ever, even as teams scored a record-high average of 23.9 points per match.
The long-term pattern is clear: as the league has expanded and teams have continued to improve, fans are being treated to higher-scoring and closer matches than ever before.
Photo: Twitter/THESTORMERS
